NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Lobbyists are pushing the Treasury Department to
consider a plan to purchase mortgage-backed securities in the hopes of driving
mortgage rates to as low as 4.5%, an industry source said.
Similar to an effort unveiled last week by the Federal Reserve, the proposal
calls for Treasury to buy securities backed by 30-year fixed-rate mortgages from
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Details on the plan remain sketchy, but an
announcement could come as early as next week, the source said.
The increased demand for mortgage-backed securities would prompt mortgage
rates to drop. That, in turn, would enable homeowners to refinance into
lower-cost loans and make it cheaper for potential homebuyers to get into the
market.
Spokeswomen from Treasury and the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which
oversees Fannie Mae (FNM,
Fortune
500) and Freddie Mac (FRE,
Fortune
500), declined to comment.
Last week's Fed move drove mortgage rates down to 5.5%, from 6.06% a week
earlier. The Fed said on Nov. 26 that it would purchase up to $500 billion in
mortgage-backed securities from Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie Mae, and that it
would buy another $100 billion in direct debt issued by those firms.
Mortgage applications more than doubled as a result, the Mortgage Bankers
Association said Wednesday. Much of the activity stemmed from homeowners looking
to refinance.
Industry groups have been pressuring President-elect Barack Obama and
lawmakers to lend a helping hand to the housing market. The National Association
of Realtors, for instance, has called for Treasury to buy mortgage-backed
securities.
Meanwhile, a coalition of industry groups have banded together under the "Fix
Housing First" banner to call for measures including tax credits of up to
$22,000 and the creation of a 30-year mortgage, carrying rates as low as
2.99%.
Experts see both pros and cons
Experts, however, had mixed views on how much a new Treasury initiative would
help homeowners and the economy. Some felt lower rates would help stabilize the
housing market by bringing in new buyers and would give those who refinance more
money to spend.
"If it gets people buying homes and spending, it will help reverse the
economy and get us out of this recession," said Scott Talbot, senior vice
president of the Financial Services Roundtable, which is pushing the measure.
While it takes time to entice new buyers into the market, low rates
accelerate that process, said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at
Bankrate.com.
"It is clearly designed to bring buyers into the marketplace and soak the
inventory of unsold homes," he said.
But others questioned whether rates would remain low and, even if they did,
only a narrow slice of credit-worthy borrowers would benefit.
Rates are already inching up, hitting 5.75% on Wednesday, said Keith
Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates. Several government attempts to
lower mortgage rates this year have failed to have a lasting effect.
Also, the proposal would do little to help troubled borrowers who have fallen
behind on their payments, have no equity in their homes or have lost their jobs.
With credit standards still high, these homeowners would not be able to
refinance and take advantage of the lower rates, he said.
Finally, super-low rates could keep private investors out of the
mortgage-backed securities market, forcing the government to remain the primary
buyer of such investments, Gumbinger said. Rates have not fallen below 5.37% in
more than 45 years.
"I can't imagine there will be a significantly active marketplace of people
who want to buy at these low rates," he said. 
First Published: December 3, 2008: 7:40 PM ET